Eurovision Season 2018: The Initial Projections
And here we are! For any Eurovision fans who have listened to all 43 Eurovision songs, we have now heard the winner! Whilst the road to Lisbon via the pre-parties now begins for our acts and the broadcasters begin working out the stage show logistics (unless you're Sweden), we as fans now have the chance to reflect on our acts and make some initial calls. I plan on doing plenty of posts previewing our 2018 spectacle in the run up to the first semi on May 8, but the first one is a straight up how well which each act do based on nothing except what we have seen in national final season and heard in each song.
Semi Final 1 Predicted Qualifiers
Israel
Estonia
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Finland
Belgium
Lithuania
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
FYR Macedonia
Everybody thought that Semi Final 2 would be the bloodbath after this draw, but I still think there's going to be a battle for final slots. This is mainly because I can't see any reality in which the first six songs on this list don't make it to the final. They are all flirting with the top of the betting odds and personal preferences aside, they are strong enough in their own way that it would be a massive upset to see one of them not reach the final.
At this point, there are four slots left with some big powerhouses amongst them. Lithuania's performance is set to be stunning live on that stage whilst if Cyprus get the staging and the vocals right, 'Fuego' should go sailing through to the final. What happens at this point is anybody's guess and it will really come down to staging and live vocals. I am giving oil-rich Azerbaijan the benefit of the doubt and predicting them to go through and I am voting with my heart and hoping that FYR Macedonia earn their first ticket to the final since Kalliopi in 2012.
It is worth keeping in mind that under this prediction, Greece will fail to qualify from their Semi Final for only the second time in their Eurovision history, a stat they will also share with Armenia if my prediction is right (Armenia would hate being elimintaed whilst Azerbaijan go through). Under this prediction, Austria won't make the final for the first time since 2013 whilst Eurovision's most successful country (Ireland) would continue their run of failing to qualify for the Grand Final since 2013. These are big calls but they are calls that we need to start making as we begin the world of Eurovision predictions.
Semi Final 2 Predicted Qualifiers
Sweden
Serbia
Moldova
Netherlands
Australia
Ukraine
Denmark
Georgia
Russia
Hungary
This semi has become the less exciting of the two semis over the course of the last few weeks. When the draw was made, all everybody could see was the Eurovision powerhouses coming up against each other. Now that the dust has settled, we see a series of countries who have done very well at the contest in the past but who are under performing this year. The appeal of Sweden, Serbia and Moldova means that there's no need to discuss them going through. Australia should have gone back to gunning for the win this year but have instead sent a song that is the definition of middle of the road (to the point where the coolest thing about it is the unnecessary hashtag in the song's title. Ukraine's performance will be exciting enough to send them through. Denmark are a dark horse of the competition who I think will come top 10 this year with an OK song (to be discussed later). Georgia's is unique enough to go through as is Hungary's. If I had to give the last slot to anybody based on the song's merit, it would be Slovenia. Unfortunately, this is a prediction and as the FBI is reminded on a daily basis, never bet against the Russians. Despite the mediocre quality of the song, it would be a seismic shock to everybody to see the Russians not qualify especially given the way they have pushed for victory in their last attempts.
There are still some notable absentees here, most notably my prediction that Eurovision legend Alexander Rybak will go home at the first hurdle. Romania would fail to qualify for the final for the first time ever. San Marino would continue their wait for a second taste of the Grand Final. And finally, the Polish diaspora will not manage to do enough to keep their song in contention despite how well they have done at keeping mediocre Polish entries in the running over the previous editions.
Final
I won't make too many final predictions because there is still a long way to go but I will say the following:
The United Kingdom will perform better than expected (expecting left side of the scoreboard but gunning for top 10).
Hot favourite Israel will come 2nd to a shock winner (so shock that I'm not ready to suggest who it is).
France will perform worse than expected and will go down as a fan favourite that never got across to the European public.
Germany will return to their rightful position of rock bottom.
Russia will be on the right side of the scoreboard for the first time in a while.
Spain will bounce back from underwhelming results over the last few years to place in the top 5 this year (their best result since 1995 when Anabel Conde came 2nd in Dublin).
Sweden and Denmark to both place in the top 10.
Cyprus and Lithuania to surpass expectations and place on the left side (possibly top 10).
That's your lot! Let me know what you think in the comments below and enjoy having the full group of 2018 Eurovision entries!
Semi Final 1 Predicted Qualifiers
Israel
Estonia
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Finland
Belgium
Lithuania
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
FYR Macedonia
Everybody thought that Semi Final 2 would be the bloodbath after this draw, but I still think there's going to be a battle for final slots. This is mainly because I can't see any reality in which the first six songs on this list don't make it to the final. They are all flirting with the top of the betting odds and personal preferences aside, they are strong enough in their own way that it would be a massive upset to see one of them not reach the final.
At this point, there are four slots left with some big powerhouses amongst them. Lithuania's performance is set to be stunning live on that stage whilst if Cyprus get the staging and the vocals right, 'Fuego' should go sailing through to the final. What happens at this point is anybody's guess and it will really come down to staging and live vocals. I am giving oil-rich Azerbaijan the benefit of the doubt and predicting them to go through and I am voting with my heart and hoping that FYR Macedonia earn their first ticket to the final since Kalliopi in 2012.
It is worth keeping in mind that under this prediction, Greece will fail to qualify from their Semi Final for only the second time in their Eurovision history, a stat they will also share with Armenia if my prediction is right (Armenia would hate being elimintaed whilst Azerbaijan go through). Under this prediction, Austria won't make the final for the first time since 2013 whilst Eurovision's most successful country (Ireland) would continue their run of failing to qualify for the Grand Final since 2013. These are big calls but they are calls that we need to start making as we begin the world of Eurovision predictions.
Semi Final 2 Predicted Qualifiers
Sweden
Serbia
Moldova
Netherlands
Australia
Ukraine
Denmark
Georgia
Russia
Hungary
This semi has become the less exciting of the two semis over the course of the last few weeks. When the draw was made, all everybody could see was the Eurovision powerhouses coming up against each other. Now that the dust has settled, we see a series of countries who have done very well at the contest in the past but who are under performing this year. The appeal of Sweden, Serbia and Moldova means that there's no need to discuss them going through. Australia should have gone back to gunning for the win this year but have instead sent a song that is the definition of middle of the road (to the point where the coolest thing about it is the unnecessary hashtag in the song's title. Ukraine's performance will be exciting enough to send them through. Denmark are a dark horse of the competition who I think will come top 10 this year with an OK song (to be discussed later). Georgia's is unique enough to go through as is Hungary's. If I had to give the last slot to anybody based on the song's merit, it would be Slovenia. Unfortunately, this is a prediction and as the FBI is reminded on a daily basis, never bet against the Russians. Despite the mediocre quality of the song, it would be a seismic shock to everybody to see the Russians not qualify especially given the way they have pushed for victory in their last attempts.
There are still some notable absentees here, most notably my prediction that Eurovision legend Alexander Rybak will go home at the first hurdle. Romania would fail to qualify for the final for the first time ever. San Marino would continue their wait for a second taste of the Grand Final. And finally, the Polish diaspora will not manage to do enough to keep their song in contention despite how well they have done at keeping mediocre Polish entries in the running over the previous editions.
Final
I won't make too many final predictions because there is still a long way to go but I will say the following:
The United Kingdom will perform better than expected (expecting left side of the scoreboard but gunning for top 10).
Hot favourite Israel will come 2nd to a shock winner (so shock that I'm not ready to suggest who it is).
France will perform worse than expected and will go down as a fan favourite that never got across to the European public.
Germany will return to their rightful position of rock bottom.
Russia will be on the right side of the scoreboard for the first time in a while.
Spain will bounce back from underwhelming results over the last few years to place in the top 5 this year (their best result since 1995 when Anabel Conde came 2nd in Dublin).
Sweden and Denmark to both place in the top 10.
Cyprus and Lithuania to surpass expectations and place on the left side (possibly top 10).
That's your lot! Let me know what you think in the comments below and enjoy having the full group of 2018 Eurovision entries!
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