Eurovision Season 2019: How Much Can We Trust the OGAE Poll?
We're so nearly there everybody! The preview parties are over, stand-in rehearsals from the arena are being leaked onto the internet and bags are being packed in preparation for rehearsals kicking off on May 4th. The only thing we have left to discuss in advance of passing comment on staging from next week onwards is the annual OGAE poll which is set to provide us with the latest fan verdict on who has the best song. Is this poll a useful bellwether? How good is the poll at giving us an idea of the overall result? Are we as Eurovision fans out of touch with the tastes of the general public watching the Saturday night Grand Final?
In order to get an idea of this, we should start by taking a look at the recent results of the poll and compare them with the results from each respective contest. Whilst there are many possible ways to look at these results, we have gone for the more aesthetically pleasing way off offering you the top 5 of each year's poll with the top 5 of each year's contest.
2018
Poll
1. Israel
2. France
3. Finland
4. Australia
5. Czech Republic
Result
1. Israel
2. Cyprus
3. Austria
4. Germany
5. Italy
2017
Poll
1. Italy
2. Belgium
3. Sweden
4. France
5. Estonia
Result
1. Portugal
2. Bulgaria
3. Moldova
4. Belgium
5. Sweden
2016
Poll
1. France
2. Russia
3. Australia
4. Bulgaria
5. Italy
Result
1. Ukraine
2. Australia
3. Russia
4. Bulgaria
5. Sweden
2015
Poll
1. Italy
2. Sweden
3. Estonia
4. Norway
5. Slovenia
Result
1. Sweden
2. Russia
3. Italy
4. Belgium
5. Australia
2014
Poll
1. Sweden
2. Hungary
3. Israel
4. Austria
5. United Kingdom
Result
1. Austria
2. Netherlands
3. Sweden
4. Armenia
5. Hungary
When you start looking at this data, the first thing that you note is that the list of countries are not entirely random. Not taking the order into consideration, the poll has correctly predicted at least two countries in the top 5 in all but one year. The exception was last year but that year's poll should be given credit for correctly predicting the winner for the first time since 2013.
This is of course, another important point to note. With the exception of 2018, the poll has failed to pick the winner in most of the last editions of the contest. This is an unusual statistic given that surely as Eurovision fans, we know more about the contest than the general public. What we forget however is that there are more of them voting than us during the contest itself. Not only that, the quantity and musical tastes of those people who vote is quite likely to change in any given year.
It is of course worth taking into account that the poll is not only voted on by fans but specifically OGAE members. At OGAE UK, our results were compiled off the votes of 273 people and we were one of the biggest contributors to the poll. Yes, the OGAE poll is at the end of the day a poll and therefore a small sample size but it certainly raises questions about the extent to which the result truly represents the tastes of Eurovision fans (which is surely the purpose of the poll in the first place).
Speaking purely subjectively, I enjoy having the OGAE poll. I enjoy knowing the views and opinions of my fellow members of the fandom. I enjoy getting my head around exactly which songs are popular and why. However, I also take the result with a pinch of salt and enjoy it for what it is. With all due respect to the poll, Mei Finegold's 'Same Heart' was not worthy of a third place finish in Copenhagen in 2014.
I also think that a little bit of credit needs to be given to the poll for the fact that it is brave enough to put out a verdict like this just before rehearsals. We all saw the way that the entire scale of the contest in Lisbon last year transformed once rehearsals started and everybody saw what Eleni Foureira was bringing to the stage with 'Fuego'. Every delegation will have remembered the way that that happened and this year is going to be exactly the same with delegations not quite revealing all their cards until they have to start practicing their act on stage. To put this into context for a moment, let's take a look at some of the previous "surprises" in the top 5 list. Nobody predicted the sheer unfiltered joy of Moldova's wedding-themed staging in 2017 nor the simple bliss of Jamala and her projections on the Stockholm stage in 2016 and anybody who told you the Dutch would finish 2nd in 2014 would have called you crazy until The Common Linnets took to the Copenhagen stage and wowed everybody by oozing chemistry in their staging. The OGAE poll is good but it's not good enough to call how people will feel about the entire package of a Eurovision act when half the package is yet to be entirely unveiled.
So what does this mean for 2019? Let's take a look at the results of the 2019 poll.
Using our previous model, we can see that the top 5 are as follows
2019
Italy
Switzerland
Netherlands
Norway
Cyprus
Now let's take into account the rules we put into consideration from our data analysis.
1) The poll rarely picks the winner
2) They have a good record of picking two of the top 5 correctly.
3) Eurovision represents a very specific fan-group and OGAE represents an even smaller
4) We have not yet seen the staging and the staging will change the entire outlook
Let's get our teeth stuck into this for predicting what will happen at the contest itself!
1) Italy will probably not win the contest but will still be a fan's favourite.
2) If I had to predict 2 of these as a top 5, I would go for Italy & Cyprus
3) I enjoy the Norwegian entry, but I have noticed that people outside the fandom find the Sami slightly complex to grasp. Commentators may note it before each entry, but will they do so in a way the gives proper credence to what a fantastic cultural moment this is? If Graham Norton's BBC gags of the past are anything to go by, I think not and I think that will ultimately hurt Norway in the final standings.
4) I think that the Swiss and the Dutch will suffer when it comes to the final staging of each entry. It should be noted that I still think they will do extremely well and place high but I don't think either of them will make the top 5 at the expense of countries with strong staging such as Sweden, Russia and Iceland.
So what do you make of that? Do you think of the OGAE poll as useful information for predicting the contest's outcome? Do you think of it as a bit of fun that ultimately means nothing to the contest itself? Do you agree with my analysis? Do you agree with my conclusions? I want to hear all of it and your final thoughts on this year's contest in the comments section before the whole shebang moves over to Tel Aviv!
In order to get an idea of this, we should start by taking a look at the recent results of the poll and compare them with the results from each respective contest. Whilst there are many possible ways to look at these results, we have gone for the more aesthetically pleasing way off offering you the top 5 of each year's poll with the top 5 of each year's contest.
2018
Poll
1. Israel
2. France
3. Finland
4. Australia
5. Czech Republic
Result
1. Israel
2. Cyprus
3. Austria
4. Germany
5. Italy
2017
Poll
1. Italy
2. Belgium
3. Sweden
4. France
5. Estonia
Result
1. Portugal
2. Bulgaria
3. Moldova
4. Belgium
5. Sweden
2016
Poll
1. France
2. Russia
3. Australia
4. Bulgaria
5. Italy
Result
1. Ukraine
2. Australia
3. Russia
4. Bulgaria
5. Sweden
2015
Poll
1. Italy
2. Sweden
3. Estonia
4. Norway
5. Slovenia
Result
1. Sweden
2. Russia
3. Italy
4. Belgium
5. Australia
2014
Poll
1. Sweden
2. Hungary
3. Israel
4. Austria
5. United Kingdom
Result
1. Austria
2. Netherlands
3. Sweden
4. Armenia
5. Hungary
When you start looking at this data, the first thing that you note is that the list of countries are not entirely random. Not taking the order into consideration, the poll has correctly predicted at least two countries in the top 5 in all but one year. The exception was last year but that year's poll should be given credit for correctly predicting the winner for the first time since 2013.
This is of course, another important point to note. With the exception of 2018, the poll has failed to pick the winner in most of the last editions of the contest. This is an unusual statistic given that surely as Eurovision fans, we know more about the contest than the general public. What we forget however is that there are more of them voting than us during the contest itself. Not only that, the quantity and musical tastes of those people who vote is quite likely to change in any given year.
It is of course worth taking into account that the poll is not only voted on by fans but specifically OGAE members. At OGAE UK, our results were compiled off the votes of 273 people and we were one of the biggest contributors to the poll. Yes, the OGAE poll is at the end of the day a poll and therefore a small sample size but it certainly raises questions about the extent to which the result truly represents the tastes of Eurovision fans (which is surely the purpose of the poll in the first place).
Speaking purely subjectively, I enjoy having the OGAE poll. I enjoy knowing the views and opinions of my fellow members of the fandom. I enjoy getting my head around exactly which songs are popular and why. However, I also take the result with a pinch of salt and enjoy it for what it is. With all due respect to the poll, Mei Finegold's 'Same Heart' was not worthy of a third place finish in Copenhagen in 2014.
I also think that a little bit of credit needs to be given to the poll for the fact that it is brave enough to put out a verdict like this just before rehearsals. We all saw the way that the entire scale of the contest in Lisbon last year transformed once rehearsals started and everybody saw what Eleni Foureira was bringing to the stage with 'Fuego'. Every delegation will have remembered the way that that happened and this year is going to be exactly the same with delegations not quite revealing all their cards until they have to start practicing their act on stage. To put this into context for a moment, let's take a look at some of the previous "surprises" in the top 5 list. Nobody predicted the sheer unfiltered joy of Moldova's wedding-themed staging in 2017 nor the simple bliss of Jamala and her projections on the Stockholm stage in 2016 and anybody who told you the Dutch would finish 2nd in 2014 would have called you crazy until The Common Linnets took to the Copenhagen stage and wowed everybody by oozing chemistry in their staging. The OGAE poll is good but it's not good enough to call how people will feel about the entire package of a Eurovision act when half the package is yet to be entirely unveiled.
So what does this mean for 2019? Let's take a look at the results of the 2019 poll.
Using our previous model, we can see that the top 5 are as follows
2019
Italy
Switzerland
Netherlands
Norway
Cyprus
Now let's take into account the rules we put into consideration from our data analysis.
1) The poll rarely picks the winner
2) They have a good record of picking two of the top 5 correctly.
3) Eurovision represents a very specific fan-group and OGAE represents an even smaller
4) We have not yet seen the staging and the staging will change the entire outlook
Let's get our teeth stuck into this for predicting what will happen at the contest itself!
1) Italy will probably not win the contest but will still be a fan's favourite.
2) If I had to predict 2 of these as a top 5, I would go for Italy & Cyprus
3) I enjoy the Norwegian entry, but I have noticed that people outside the fandom find the Sami slightly complex to grasp. Commentators may note it before each entry, but will they do so in a way the gives proper credence to what a fantastic cultural moment this is? If Graham Norton's BBC gags of the past are anything to go by, I think not and I think that will ultimately hurt Norway in the final standings.
4) I think that the Swiss and the Dutch will suffer when it comes to the final staging of each entry. It should be noted that I still think they will do extremely well and place high but I don't think either of them will make the top 5 at the expense of countries with strong staging such as Sweden, Russia and Iceland.
So what do you make of that? Do you think of the OGAE poll as useful information for predicting the contest's outcome? Do you think of it as a bit of fun that ultimately means nothing to the contest itself? Do you agree with my analysis? Do you agree with my conclusions? I want to hear all of it and your final thoughts on this year's contest in the comments section before the whole shebang moves over to Tel Aviv!
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