2018: Who's due a win?
Hello! So yesterday I went down my all-time Eurovision rankings done both ways and with that in mind, I am going to start looking ahead to the 2018 contest by looking at the countries who are due a win and why I believe they're due a win.
Russia
I'm sure I'm not the only Eurovision fan who struggles to "believe" that of all the Eurovision hits that Russia have given us that their only win has come from Dima Bilan's 2008 hit (let's see if anybody gets that joke). In seriousness, Russia have placed excellently in the previous rounds in 2016 with Sergey Lazarev and 2015 with Polina Gagarina. It seems to all of us that they are ramping up their efforts more and more and we can't be that far off a second Russian win and a return to Moscow (or as my guess would be a trip to Sochi). They are further boosted this year by their absence last year (which seems like a ridiculous argument until you realise that Ukraine didn't compete in 2015 and Portugal didn't compete in 2016). Russia is the most high profile nation making a comeback and I can say with a fair degree of certainty that they will place in the top 10 regardless of what they send, but get their act and staging right and they could win the whole thing! If I were to put money on anybody to win at this very early stage of proceedings, it would certainly be Russia.
(Alsou - Russian entry at Eurovision 2000)
Iceland
After Helsinki in 2007, Oslo in 2010, Malmö in 2013, Copenhagen in 2014 and Stockholm in 2016, you can see that the one Scandanavian country clearly missing from the club of recent hosts are Iceland. They were unlucky to have their most popular entry sent the same year as Alexander Rybak's 'Fairytale' in 2009 and they have been on a difficult run of form at Eurovision having not reached the final since 2014. However, don't let that data distract from the fact that 98% of Icelandic TV viewers watched last year's grand final despite their country not participating. The country has the classic Scandanavian excitement and enthusiasm for the contest making their national selection process Söngvakeppnin one of the most exciting to watch. Portugal has this year proven that you don't need neighbours to win the contest and with the right act, I reckon they are due a win sometime soon. Let's face it, who amomg us wouldn't get excited about the prospect of turning Iceland into a massive Eurovision island in May 2019 where the sun won't even have set by the end of the grand final!
(Maria Olafs - Icelandic entry at Eurovision 2015)
Malta
And speaking of island nations who have historically performed well at Eurovision, we head next to the most successful nation to have never won the contest! One of my personal favourite countries of the modern Eurovision era, Malta have never managed to garner any kind of consistency at the contest, going from placing in the top 5 amongst the 2016 Grand Final jury vote to bowing out early in this year's semi final. Nevertheless, Chiara and Ira Losco have both proved that it is possible to send Malta up the Eurovision scoreboard and in a year when most countries are opting to sing in the national language, will Malta singing in English work in their favour? Who knows? But one thing's for sure, you can be sure that a Eurovision hosted in Malta will be a grand party and I know that it will happen someday!
(Firelight - Maltese entry at Eurovision 2014)
Poland
In 2014, Poland returned to the contest with a bunch of traditionally dressed Polish women churning butter. The televote for Poland was incredibly popular that year and myself included, everybody drew conclusions as to the reasons why. However as the following years have demonstrated, the Polish can afford to send absolute dross of music and they will always make the grand final because of the incredible work of the Polish diaspora on Eurovision nights. So if they can manage to come 3rd in the 2016 televote with the masterpiece of yawn that was 'Colour of Your Life', what could the Polish manage to do with a song that actually fit the criterion of a good Eurovision entry? Most Eurovision die-hards will always think about what could have been if the Polish public had selected fan favourite Margaret's 'Cool Me Down' in 2016, at the time I was sure that it was pretty much a done deal that we were heading to Warsaw the following year. In any case, I am keeping the faith in the Poles to select a high quality entry for 2018 and bring the contest to Poland for the first time since they began entering in 1994.
(Sixteen - Polish entry at Eurovision 1998)
Bulgaria
Bulgaria isn't a typical Eurovision country by any stretch of the imagination however, it's worth pointing out some facts. Despite the long string of semi final flops, Bulgaria have placed in the top 5 every time they have made it to the Grand Final. Bulgaria's internal selection process has gotten the artist, the staging and the song all right in the last two years. When it came down to the climax moment of Eurovision 2017, we were either going to be heading to Lisbon or Sofia next year. Last year proved to everybody that Bulgaria are a country to be take seriously at Eurovision. It's unclear to say what will happen this year with any kind of certainty, however there is definitely a hunger from the Bulgarian delegation not just to place high but to win the whole thing. I reckon that if the broadcaster can keep their core team working together, that they are on course to produce a Eurovision victory at some point in the next few years.
(Poli Genova -Bulgarian entry at Eurovision 2016)
Italy
There are many Eurovision fans still living in denial about this year's contest and specifically about how victory was snatched from the furry hands of Francesco Gabbani's dancing gorilla. We could analyse why it didn't win for multiple blog posts but instead we should give Italy the credit where credit is due in being a Big 5 nation who have defied the theory that big 5 nations can't do well in the contest. The fact of the matter is that since their return in 2011, they have placed in the top 10 in all but 2 of the competitions. They won the 2015 televote, they were the massive favourite to win the whole thing this year and their record is not to be looked badly at. I'm sure there are many fans who are wishing that Francesco had won and that we were headed to Italy next year. Whilst I can't say that I'm not one of those fans, I encourage all those who share my opinion to cheer up because as soon as Italy come up with a song that is catchy, staged well and which can be easily shaved down to 3 minutes after the Sanremo final, we will be heading for the southern European country and hearing cries of "Italie, douze points" on the lips of the hosts. How long will we be waiting? Given how close we came both in 2015 and 2017, I can't imagine we're that far off!
(Francesco Gabbani - Italian Entry at Eurovision 2017)
Thank you for reading! Please let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
Russia
I'm sure I'm not the only Eurovision fan who struggles to "believe" that of all the Eurovision hits that Russia have given us that their only win has come from Dima Bilan's 2008 hit (let's see if anybody gets that joke). In seriousness, Russia have placed excellently in the previous rounds in 2016 with Sergey Lazarev and 2015 with Polina Gagarina. It seems to all of us that they are ramping up their efforts more and more and we can't be that far off a second Russian win and a return to Moscow (or as my guess would be a trip to Sochi). They are further boosted this year by their absence last year (which seems like a ridiculous argument until you realise that Ukraine didn't compete in 2015 and Portugal didn't compete in 2016). Russia is the most high profile nation making a comeback and I can say with a fair degree of certainty that they will place in the top 10 regardless of what they send, but get their act and staging right and they could win the whole thing! If I were to put money on anybody to win at this very early stage of proceedings, it would certainly be Russia.
(Alsou - Russian entry at Eurovision 2000)
Iceland
After Helsinki in 2007, Oslo in 2010, Malmö in 2013, Copenhagen in 2014 and Stockholm in 2016, you can see that the one Scandanavian country clearly missing from the club of recent hosts are Iceland. They were unlucky to have their most popular entry sent the same year as Alexander Rybak's 'Fairytale' in 2009 and they have been on a difficult run of form at Eurovision having not reached the final since 2014. However, don't let that data distract from the fact that 98% of Icelandic TV viewers watched last year's grand final despite their country not participating. The country has the classic Scandanavian excitement and enthusiasm for the contest making their national selection process Söngvakeppnin one of the most exciting to watch. Portugal has this year proven that you don't need neighbours to win the contest and with the right act, I reckon they are due a win sometime soon. Let's face it, who amomg us wouldn't get excited about the prospect of turning Iceland into a massive Eurovision island in May 2019 where the sun won't even have set by the end of the grand final!
(Maria Olafs - Icelandic entry at Eurovision 2015)
Malta
And speaking of island nations who have historically performed well at Eurovision, we head next to the most successful nation to have never won the contest! One of my personal favourite countries of the modern Eurovision era, Malta have never managed to garner any kind of consistency at the contest, going from placing in the top 5 amongst the 2016 Grand Final jury vote to bowing out early in this year's semi final. Nevertheless, Chiara and Ira Losco have both proved that it is possible to send Malta up the Eurovision scoreboard and in a year when most countries are opting to sing in the national language, will Malta singing in English work in their favour? Who knows? But one thing's for sure, you can be sure that a Eurovision hosted in Malta will be a grand party and I know that it will happen someday!
(Firelight - Maltese entry at Eurovision 2014)
Poland
In 2014, Poland returned to the contest with a bunch of traditionally dressed Polish women churning butter. The televote for Poland was incredibly popular that year and myself included, everybody drew conclusions as to the reasons why. However as the following years have demonstrated, the Polish can afford to send absolute dross of music and they will always make the grand final because of the incredible work of the Polish diaspora on Eurovision nights. So if they can manage to come 3rd in the 2016 televote with the masterpiece of yawn that was 'Colour of Your Life', what could the Polish manage to do with a song that actually fit the criterion of a good Eurovision entry? Most Eurovision die-hards will always think about what could have been if the Polish public had selected fan favourite Margaret's 'Cool Me Down' in 2016, at the time I was sure that it was pretty much a done deal that we were heading to Warsaw the following year. In any case, I am keeping the faith in the Poles to select a high quality entry for 2018 and bring the contest to Poland for the first time since they began entering in 1994.
(Sixteen - Polish entry at Eurovision 1998)
Bulgaria
Bulgaria isn't a typical Eurovision country by any stretch of the imagination however, it's worth pointing out some facts. Despite the long string of semi final flops, Bulgaria have placed in the top 5 every time they have made it to the Grand Final. Bulgaria's internal selection process has gotten the artist, the staging and the song all right in the last two years. When it came down to the climax moment of Eurovision 2017, we were either going to be heading to Lisbon or Sofia next year. Last year proved to everybody that Bulgaria are a country to be take seriously at Eurovision. It's unclear to say what will happen this year with any kind of certainty, however there is definitely a hunger from the Bulgarian delegation not just to place high but to win the whole thing. I reckon that if the broadcaster can keep their core team working together, that they are on course to produce a Eurovision victory at some point in the next few years.
(Poli Genova -Bulgarian entry at Eurovision 2016)
Italy
There are many Eurovision fans still living in denial about this year's contest and specifically about how victory was snatched from the furry hands of Francesco Gabbani's dancing gorilla. We could analyse why it didn't win for multiple blog posts but instead we should give Italy the credit where credit is due in being a Big 5 nation who have defied the theory that big 5 nations can't do well in the contest. The fact of the matter is that since their return in 2011, they have placed in the top 10 in all but 2 of the competitions. They won the 2015 televote, they were the massive favourite to win the whole thing this year and their record is not to be looked badly at. I'm sure there are many fans who are wishing that Francesco had won and that we were headed to Italy next year. Whilst I can't say that I'm not one of those fans, I encourage all those who share my opinion to cheer up because as soon as Italy come up with a song that is catchy, staged well and which can be easily shaved down to 3 minutes after the Sanremo final, we will be heading for the southern European country and hearing cries of "Italie, douze points" on the lips of the hosts. How long will we be waiting? Given how close we came both in 2015 and 2017, I can't imagine we're that far off!
(Francesco Gabbani - Italian Entry at Eurovision 2017)
Thank you for reading! Please let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
Comments
Post a Comment