Welcome to the 2020s!
Hello everybody and welcome to the '20s, a new decade which represents a new era for Eurovision complete with a new executive supervisor of the EBU from next year onwards. As somebody doing the rounds on the various Facebook groups that I was a part of, I was proud of the Eurovision community's ability to ring in the New Year with a true sense of style and reflective fun! The image however that best caught my mind was one which tallied the total points from the 2010-2019 contests
Whilst the results might not be a particular surprise, I was curious to look at the countries who placed highly whilst failing to clinch a victory at the contest during the last ten years. As we wait in the early stages of this current Eurovision season to see how things progress and who gets selected where, I'm eager to take a look at the five best-placed nations in the table above and explore why the 2020s potentially will and won't be the decade when they take victory.
Italy
Why it will - How many years are we going to start the Eurovision season by raving about how Italy has all the tools to win the Eurovision Song Contest? How many times is Sanremo going to produce a bonafide Italian hit that Europe will get behind? I believe that the answer to both these questions is when Italy manages the victory they have been competing hard for since 2011 and have been waiting for since 1990. The 30th anniversary of Tuto's victory wouldn't be such a bad time to bring the contest back to Italy, allowing RAI to finally set new memories of what an Italian Eurovision can be truly capable of. Italy are so close to the golden formula that it feels like less of an if question and more of a when question.
Why it won't - The Italian language is both a great strength to Italian entries and also a potential drawback. As there is a limit to the number of voters who speak Italian, getting the message of each song down the camera is paramount to an Italian success. Even if the staging is perfect, if the artist's headspace isn't totally prepared for giving that emotional connection to the TV audience, the act will suffer in the voting. It's also only a matter of time before Eurovision evolves its stages and audience evolve their tastes; it's difficult to tell whether the Italian brand of Eurovision entry will still be in fashion by the end of the decade.
Russia
Why it will - So the end of the decade saw Russia marred in political controversy over the Ukrainian conflict which saw a bizarre set of circumstances rule the world's largest nation out of contention in 2017 (and effectively in 2018). Make no mistake about it though, Russia want to win this competition. They would not have invested as much time, money and effort of Sergey Lazarev's two entries alone if it was ultimately all for a show of strength and a high placing. It is no coincedence that the names linked with the 2020 Russian internal selection are all highly qualified Russian stars. Russia want the contest back on home soil and they will be relentless in their efforts to do so until they are successful.
Why it won't - Hate to use the politics word here, but Russia didn't get relentlessly booed during most of the 2010s because of the poor standard of their performances. They got booed because of the popularity of their government and the popularity of their leader (dare we mention what happened in 2016). The world is in an extremely tense and fragile political period and whilst nobody knows the extent to which Russia will be a part of that, they will certainly not be sitting on the sides watching everything unfold. What Putin does will have a direct effect on the way that Russia is viewed by the rest of Europe and whilst that is unlikely to prevent a high-scoring finish, it could well prevent a victory (again, see 2016).
Australia
Why it will - In 2015, they came as guests and we fell in love with the land down under who joined the great European party! It's very clear that Australia get Eurovision, it's very clear that Australians take it seriously and it's also clear that SBS have taken a leaf straight out of the Swedish Eurovision playbook by setting up a large scale national final that is set to grow and develop for years to come. For as long as Australia competes at Eurovision, they will be a force to be reckoned with complete with the freshness that still pervades every Aussie entry to make it onto the Eurovision stage.
Why it won't - I hate to play the beginner's luck card here, but the best Australian results came in their first two entries when they placed in the top 5. Since then, their results have been 9th, 20th and 9th again. Whilst it is true that the Australia Decides will breathe new life into the Australian Eurovision selection process, isn't there a slight possibility that the novelty will ware off either for the European voters, the Australian audience, the Australian music industry or most likely, the Australian broadcaster whose eyes are firmly set on launching Asiavision in the near future. The last decade saw Australia seize their opportunity to compete but will that excitement and enthusiasm survive the decade?
Bulgaria
Why it will - Because Symphonix International will get their opportunity again and they will have their victory. Whilst it is unclear whether they will get that through the Bulgarian broadcaster, it would be a crying shame for it not to be. I could easily see this being the decade when Kristian Kostov makes a return to the Eurovision stage and wins with a dark, brooding Symphonix track as he almost did in 2017. Whilst it is unclear how much the Bulgarian broadcaster would actually like to win Eurovision, what the delegation have managed to achieve in a short space of time (remember, they place high on this list having not competed for three editions during this decade) is remarkable and those foundations have to be put to some use.
Why it won't - Money. Bulgaria didn't compete in 2014, 2015 and 2019 owing to BNT's financial issues. Whilst it is unclear if this will have an effect on the coming entries this year (the bill for this year is being footed by Victoria's record company), it is clear that the national broadcaster's hands are tied. Whilst this doesn't necessarily discount the Bulgarians from victory, it limits what they are ultimately able to achieve, particularly in the run-in to the live shows.
Belgium
Why it will - Because in 2015, out of absolutely nowhere, the Belgians stumbled upon a magical formula for Eurovision that combined a slick performance with a rising, young, charismatic talent of a performer and a well-written song with ethereal production. It is unclear how they found this but Europe fell in love with it and now this identity is part of Belgian Eurovision history. If either the French or Flemish broadcaster can get that magic back, there's a sense that nobody at Eurovision will send anything quite like it.
Why it won't - When it started going wrong for Belgium in 2018, it started going very, very wrong. Both Sennek and Eliot were poor choices who wrote songs that were ultimately shown up as being poor fits for Eurovision (although both were let down in their staging more than anything) and ultimately didn't see the light of the final. Whilst we are yet to get a sense of what Hooverphonic's go at Eurovision this year will be like, I am not initially hopeful. It seems that both Belgian broadcasters have gone back to the drawing board to try and re-invent the Belgian Eurovision identity in time for the tastes of the Eurovision audience evolving to collide perfectly. That year unfortunatly still feels quite a ways away.
So what do you think? Who is the 2020s going to be a great decade for? Are we headed to any of these countries for the contest in the next ten years? Please don't forget to subscribe to the blog and leave your comments below with your thoughts. Our next posts should be bringing us thick into Eurovision Season 2020 as we reflect on Arilena Ara's shock victory in Albania, a diverting Eesti Laul lineup and we try to track the fascinating Melodi Grand Prix remix happening in Norway!
Whilst the results might not be a particular surprise, I was curious to look at the countries who placed highly whilst failing to clinch a victory at the contest during the last ten years. As we wait in the early stages of this current Eurovision season to see how things progress and who gets selected where, I'm eager to take a look at the five best-placed nations in the table above and explore why the 2020s potentially will and won't be the decade when they take victory.
Italy
Why it will - How many years are we going to start the Eurovision season by raving about how Italy has all the tools to win the Eurovision Song Contest? How many times is Sanremo going to produce a bonafide Italian hit that Europe will get behind? I believe that the answer to both these questions is when Italy manages the victory they have been competing hard for since 2011 and have been waiting for since 1990. The 30th anniversary of Tuto's victory wouldn't be such a bad time to bring the contest back to Italy, allowing RAI to finally set new memories of what an Italian Eurovision can be truly capable of. Italy are so close to the golden formula that it feels like less of an if question and more of a when question.
Why it won't - The Italian language is both a great strength to Italian entries and also a potential drawback. As there is a limit to the number of voters who speak Italian, getting the message of each song down the camera is paramount to an Italian success. Even if the staging is perfect, if the artist's headspace isn't totally prepared for giving that emotional connection to the TV audience, the act will suffer in the voting. It's also only a matter of time before Eurovision evolves its stages and audience evolve their tastes; it's difficult to tell whether the Italian brand of Eurovision entry will still be in fashion by the end of the decade.
Russia
Why it will - So the end of the decade saw Russia marred in political controversy over the Ukrainian conflict which saw a bizarre set of circumstances rule the world's largest nation out of contention in 2017 (and effectively in 2018). Make no mistake about it though, Russia want to win this competition. They would not have invested as much time, money and effort of Sergey Lazarev's two entries alone if it was ultimately all for a show of strength and a high placing. It is no coincedence that the names linked with the 2020 Russian internal selection are all highly qualified Russian stars. Russia want the contest back on home soil and they will be relentless in their efforts to do so until they are successful.
Why it won't - Hate to use the politics word here, but Russia didn't get relentlessly booed during most of the 2010s because of the poor standard of their performances. They got booed because of the popularity of their government and the popularity of their leader (dare we mention what happened in 2016). The world is in an extremely tense and fragile political period and whilst nobody knows the extent to which Russia will be a part of that, they will certainly not be sitting on the sides watching everything unfold. What Putin does will have a direct effect on the way that Russia is viewed by the rest of Europe and whilst that is unlikely to prevent a high-scoring finish, it could well prevent a victory (again, see 2016).
Australia
Why it will - In 2015, they came as guests and we fell in love with the land down under who joined the great European party! It's very clear that Australia get Eurovision, it's very clear that Australians take it seriously and it's also clear that SBS have taken a leaf straight out of the Swedish Eurovision playbook by setting up a large scale national final that is set to grow and develop for years to come. For as long as Australia competes at Eurovision, they will be a force to be reckoned with complete with the freshness that still pervades every Aussie entry to make it onto the Eurovision stage.
Why it won't - I hate to play the beginner's luck card here, but the best Australian results came in their first two entries when they placed in the top 5. Since then, their results have been 9th, 20th and 9th again. Whilst it is true that the Australia Decides will breathe new life into the Australian Eurovision selection process, isn't there a slight possibility that the novelty will ware off either for the European voters, the Australian audience, the Australian music industry or most likely, the Australian broadcaster whose eyes are firmly set on launching Asiavision in the near future. The last decade saw Australia seize their opportunity to compete but will that excitement and enthusiasm survive the decade?
Bulgaria
Why it will - Because Symphonix International will get their opportunity again and they will have their victory. Whilst it is unclear whether they will get that through the Bulgarian broadcaster, it would be a crying shame for it not to be. I could easily see this being the decade when Kristian Kostov makes a return to the Eurovision stage and wins with a dark, brooding Symphonix track as he almost did in 2017. Whilst it is unclear how much the Bulgarian broadcaster would actually like to win Eurovision, what the delegation have managed to achieve in a short space of time (remember, they place high on this list having not competed for three editions during this decade) is remarkable and those foundations have to be put to some use.
Why it won't - Money. Bulgaria didn't compete in 2014, 2015 and 2019 owing to BNT's financial issues. Whilst it is unclear if this will have an effect on the coming entries this year (the bill for this year is being footed by Victoria's record company), it is clear that the national broadcaster's hands are tied. Whilst this doesn't necessarily discount the Bulgarians from victory, it limits what they are ultimately able to achieve, particularly in the run-in to the live shows.
Belgium
Why it will - Because in 2015, out of absolutely nowhere, the Belgians stumbled upon a magical formula for Eurovision that combined a slick performance with a rising, young, charismatic talent of a performer and a well-written song with ethereal production. It is unclear how they found this but Europe fell in love with it and now this identity is part of Belgian Eurovision history. If either the French or Flemish broadcaster can get that magic back, there's a sense that nobody at Eurovision will send anything quite like it.
Why it won't - When it started going wrong for Belgium in 2018, it started going very, very wrong. Both Sennek and Eliot were poor choices who wrote songs that were ultimately shown up as being poor fits for Eurovision (although both were let down in their staging more than anything) and ultimately didn't see the light of the final. Whilst we are yet to get a sense of what Hooverphonic's go at Eurovision this year will be like, I am not initially hopeful. It seems that both Belgian broadcasters have gone back to the drawing board to try and re-invent the Belgian Eurovision identity in time for the tastes of the Eurovision audience evolving to collide perfectly. That year unfortunatly still feels quite a ways away.
So what do you think? Who is the 2020s going to be a great decade for? Are we headed to any of these countries for the contest in the next ten years? Please don't forget to subscribe to the blog and leave your comments below with your thoughts. Our next posts should be bringing us thick into Eurovision Season 2020 as we reflect on Arilena Ara's shock victory in Albania, a diverting Eesti Laul lineup and we try to track the fascinating Melodi Grand Prix remix happening in Norway!
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