Eurovision Season 2019: The Initial Projections

Right! Now that we've all caught our breath, let's start looking forward to Tel Aviv and May 14th when the first semi-final kicks off! Who's going through, what's going to happen, is there a clear winner?

In writing this article, I am going to first offer the qualifiers according to the bookies, then the qualifiers according to popular app Eurovision Scoreboard and finally bring in my own judgement to come up with a definitive list of qualifiers.Image result for eurovision 2019 insignia

Qualifiers according to the Bookies

 Semi Final 1

Cyprus
Iceland
Greece
Portugal
Slovenia
Belgium
Estonia
Czech Republic
Australia
Finland

 Semi Final 2

The Netherlands
Russia
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
Malta
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Denmark
North Macedonia

Qualifiers according to Eurovision Scoreboard

Semi Final 1

Cyprus
Greece
Iceland
Portugal
Belgium
Slovenia
Estonia
Australia
Czech Republic
Hungary

 Semi Final 2

The Netherlands
Switzerland
Norway
Russia
Sweden
Malta
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Albania
Romania

So not a lot of difference, now I'm going to offer my own insight into the mix!

Qualifiers according to the Internationalist Eurovision Blog (listed in alphabetical order)

Semi Final 1

Australia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Estonia
Finland
Greece
Iceland
Hungary
Portugal
San Marino

So there are a lot of big calls that need to be made in my predictions for the first semi. Firstly, I think you have to acknowledge that Cyprus, Greece, Iceland & Portugal will sail through. Once you do that, there are six slots left and reasonable guesses could say that Estonia, Australia and the Czech Republic take three of those slots. With three slots left there are many options to go for. If I was voting with my heart, I would go for Montenegro bagging one of them but I will be realistic and suggest they won't. Tulia haven't set anybody's pulses racing and be it not for a) the Polish diaspora and b) Georgia being in this semi, they would probably be competing for last. I have gone for Finland, Hungary and San Marino to go through for different reasons. I think that 'Look Away' stands out enough as a performance and a song to get a very specific demographic of vote. As much as I hate to say it, you should never bet against the Hungarians qualifying out of a Semi especially when Joci is back! Finally, I think it's easy for us all to forget that Serhat nearly qualified for the Stockholm final back in 2016 and that he's now back with a catchier, more unique song and with previous experience which he will bring to the song's overall concept in Tel Aviv. The song has infectious joy and I am definitely confident enough to say that it is the best San Marinese entry of all time and therefore deserves to earn their second ever qualification.    

Semi Final 2

Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Denmark
Malta
The Netherlands
Norway
Russia
Sweden
Switzerland

And then we come to this year's bloodbath Semi! The first six songs on this list similarly pick themselves as the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway & Malta. The last four slots aren't easy to predict but this Semi has some songs that are definitively not going anywhere near the Final including Latvia, Moldova, Croatia & Lithuania. One wouldn't normally bet against Romania but 'On a Sunday' struggled to earn televotes in Romania let alone across Europe. I like the Irish song but I don't think it will have enough wow factor to qualify. I am going to go with Armenia and Azerbaijan to improve on poor results last year and return to the Grand Final. I think Denmark's multi-lingual super-chair will make it stand out enough to send it through. Then in a bold call, I think that Austria will take the last slot mainly off a) her voice and b) that I think the Austrians will nail the staging on this entry. 

Some spontaneous musings on the Final

As with last year's entry, I don't like to project too much onto the final at this early a stage, however I will predict the following...

Israel to do better than expected and place in the top half (possibly top 10)

The United Kingdom, France & Germany all to battle it out for last place with Germany winning (or losing depending on how you see it) that battle.

Spain to have a fun, roof-raising performance that doesn't translate into a result AT ALL.

Italy to continue placing in the top 10 and yet seeming far from victory.

The Netherlands to NOT place in the top 5 mainly due to poor staging.

Russia to place in the top 5 but again, not be close to winning.

Switzerland to place surprisingly poorly, definitely outside the top 10 but possibly even bottom half (owing to the poor Swiss standards of staging)

Australia to have their worst result to date (worse than 20th last year)

Malta to place in the top 10 for the first time since Gianluca Bezzina in 2013

Sweden to place in the top 3 (and to win the jury vote)!

Iceland to make some bold political statement on stage and create a lot of controversy.

and finally... Tamta to go one better than her Greek compatriot Eleni and bring Eurovision 2020 to Cyprus!

So what do you think of that lot? Do you agree on any of those? Do you have your own projections? Please leave them in the comments below and we can discuss them. There are some controversial projections within this post including a potential Balkan blackout with 0 Balkan nations qualifying for this year's Grand Final! Don't forget to subscribe and you will get more exciting content as it comes out to tide you over during the final two months before Tel Aviv!  






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